2026 Hurricane Season: CSU Predicts Less Activity, But Not Total Calm

Fewer hurricanes in the 2026 hurricane season

Lower probability of impact

El Niño will influence season

Colorado State University (CSU) forecasts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2026.

The outlook estimates 13 named storms, a figure lower than the recent historical average, according to Infobae.

Additionally, a lower probability of significant impacts in the United States and the Caribbean is expected.

Why it matters: The projection suggests a lower level of risk compared to recent years, although cyclone activity remains relevant within the 2026 hurricane season forecast.

2026 hurricane season expected to be calmer

Researchers in the U.S. predict a below-average hurricane season, with 13 cyclones https://t.co/PrDU7V4e3V https://t.co/PJWvzp1Mxa

— 20minutos.es (@20m) April 9, 2026

CSU projects a total of 13 named storms for the 2026 hurricane season. Of these, six are expected to become hurricanes, and two could reach major hurricane status.

A major hurricane is defined as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir–Simpson scale. These figures are below historical averages.

Typically, there are 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

Researchers estimate that activity will be about 75% of the average recorded between 1991 and 2020.

This marks a significant reduction compared to more active seasons. The official Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

Lower risk for the United States and the Caribbean

2026 Hurricane Season: CSU Predicts Less Activity – Photo ChatGPT

The forecast also indicates a lower probability of landfall. There is a 32% chance that a major hurricane will hit the United States.

This percentage is below the historical average of 43%. For the Caribbean, the probability is 35%.

The annual average in that region is typically 47%. This suggests a lower-risk scenario for both areas under the 2026 hurricane season forecast.

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However, activity does not disappear and risks remain. In 2025, no hurricane made landfall in the United States.

It was the first time in a decade that this occurred. Even so, that year recorded 13 named storms.

There were also three Category 5 hurricanes, one of the highest counts on record.

The most significant hurricane was Melissa. It struck Jamaica as a Category 5 storm.

It caused nearly $9 billion in damages and resulted in 95 deaths across Caribbean countries.

El Niño as a key factor in the 2026 forecast

The main factor influencing 2026 will be the El Niño phenomenon. This involves warmer-than-normal waters in the tropical Pacific.

It also strengthens westerly winds across the Caribbean and Atlantic.

These conditions make hurricane formation and intensification more difficult.

Therefore, it is considered an unfavorable factor for cyclone activity. In contrast, recent years have shown significant variability.

In 2024, there were 18 storms and 11 hurricanes. Five of them made landfall in the United States.

Hurricane Helene was the most severe that year. It caused more than 200 deaths in the southern U.S.

In 2025, only Tropical Storm Chantal made landfall in the United States. It occurred in July and resulted in two deaths in North Carolina.

What’s next:

This is CSU’s first forecast for the 2026 hurricane season.

The official outlook from NOAA is still pending.

That forecast is usually released at the end of May.

Its update will allow for comparison and adjustment of expectations.