Experts Warn of Hurricane Risk in the Gulf of Mexico During September

Hurricane Risk in September

Experts Warn of Rapid Intensification

Caribbean and Leeward Islands in Danger

The start of September in the Atlantic has been unusually calm, but hurricane specialists warn that this could change very soon.

According to AccuWeather, a surge in the development of tropical storms and hurricanes is expected during the second half of the month.

The Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean are identified as the regions at greatest risk due to their warm waters and favorable atmospheric conditions.

Experts stress that coastal communities should prepare in advance for potential threats.

The Perfect Fuel for Hurricanes

Experts Warn of Hurricane Risk in the Gulf of Mexico in September-Photo: Shutterstock

“Atmospheric conditions will be favorable for the development of tropical storms and hurricanes by mid-September,” explained Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert.

He detailed that the reduction of dry air, Saharan dust, and wind shear will allow tropical systems to grow more quickly.

RELATED: California Faces New Wave of Wildfires Triggered by Dry Lightning

So far, the Gulf has been practically untouched this season, except for short-lived Tropical Storm Barry in June.

That scenario has allowed waters to heat up to concerning levels, increasing the likelihood of rapidly intensifying hurricanes.

The Danger of Sudden Intensification

“If something enters there, it’s almost certain to become a major hurricane,” warned DaSilva, referring to the Gulf of Mexico.

He added that ocean heat content is “just below record levels” and that the situation “is extremely concerning.”

Warm water acts as fuel for cyclones, with temperatures ranging between 80 and 90 degrees Fahrenheit.

“That warm water can be the fuel for hurricane development,” noted Jon Porter, AccuWeather’s chief meteorologist.

Extreme Intensification and Recent Examples

Meteorologists are warning about rapid intensification, when a storm’s winds increase by at least 35 mph (56 km/h) in 24 hours.

This phenomenon complicates preparation plans and reduces the time available for safe evacuations.

In recent years, hurricanes such as Helene, Michael, and Ian have demonstrated how a storm can strengthen dramatically before landfall.

A more recent example was Erin, which in August over the Atlantic jumped from Category 1 to Category 5 in just one day.

Areas at Greatest Hurricane Risk in September

With this outlook, authorities recommend that residents of the Gulf and the Caribbean remain alert and stock up on basic supplies.

“AccuWeather’s hurricane experts continue to highlight the northern and eastern Gulf Coast and the Carolinas as areas at greater-than-average risk of direct impacts this season,” said DaSilva.

The specialist added that other areas should also remain vigilant.

“The Atlantic region of Canada and the northeastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, are also at greater risk,” he noted.

The Peak of the Hurricane Season

September 10 marks the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.

However, meteorologists expect that most of 2025’s cyclones will develop in the weeks that follow.

Forecasts suggest that a developing tropical storm could hit the Leeward Islands as a hurricane next week.

The warning is clear: September could prove to be a key month in the intensity of this hurricane season, AccuWeather stressed.